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November 2, 2025
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Good morning! In today’s issue, we’ll dig into the all of the latest moves and highlight what they mean for you right now. Along the way, you’ll find insights you can put to work immediately
— Ryan Rincon, Founder at The Wealth Wagon Inc.
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Today’s Post
The Global Housing Squeeze: What’s Really Driving Home Prices in 2025
If it feels like homes are getting more expensive no matter where you live, you’re not imagining things. From Toronto to Tokyo, Sydney to São Paulo, real estate markets are still feeling the aftershocks of a decade defined by cheap money, low supply, and shifting lifestyles. But in 2025, the game has changed — higher interest rates, demographic shifts, and investor pullbacks are reshaping the housing market in ways few predicted.
Let’s unpack what’s going on across the world — and what it could mean for homeowners, renters, and investors alike.
🏠 The new “normal” in global housing
After years of explosive price growth, housing markets are cooling — but not collapsing. According to the OECD’s 2025 midyear housing outlook, home prices globally are down about 3% on average from their 2022 peaks, but that’s after rising more than 35% between 2015 and 2022. So yes, prices are easing — but affordability remains a global headache.
Here’s what’s defining the current phase:
Mortgage rates have doubled since 2021 in most advanced economies. In the U.S., the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovers near 6.8%, up from under 3% just a few years ago.
Housing supply is still tight. Builders pulled back during the rate hikes of 2023–2024, leaving new-home inventories low. Many homeowners also aren’t selling because they’re “locked in” with cheaper mortgages.
Demand hasn’t disappeared. Despite higher borrowing costs, population growth, migration, and remote-work flexibility keep pushing people to buy — just in different regions and price ranges.
🌎 Regional stories: Who’s cooling, who’s heating
United States & Canada
After record highs, housing affordability hit its worst point in 40 years. However, markets like Texas, Florida, and Alberta are seeing renewed buyer interest thanks to job growth and cheaper land. Urban centers like San Francisco and Toronto, meanwhile, are struggling with high prices and low listings.Europe
The European Central Bank’s higher rates have softened prices across Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands, but southern Europe — especially Spain and Portugal — is attracting remote workers and retirees, keeping demand alive.Asia-Pacific
China’s property market remains fragile, with developers under pressure and youth unemployment affecting buying power. Japan, interestingly, is seeing a mini-boom in Tokyo condos as inflation expectations rise. Australia and New Zealand remain expensive, with affordability still a top political issue.Emerging markets
In countries like India, Brazil, and Vietnam, rapid urbanization and new infrastructure projects are fueling demand, even as higher global rates slow construction funding. Investors see these regions as the “next housing frontier.”
📈 What’s driving the squeeze
Interest rates: Central banks around the world have raised rates to fight inflation, and housing is feeling the heat. When borrowing costs rise, fewer people qualify for loans — but limited supply is keeping prices from crashing.
Demographics: Millennials and Gen Z are entering peak home-buying age, adding demand pressure even as affordability worsens.
Supply lag: Decades of underbuilding are catching up. The U.S. alone is short an estimated 3.5 million homes, according to Freddie Mac data.
Investor behavior: Institutional investors are pulling back, especially from high-priced rental markets, freeing up inventory — but not fast enough to change the game.
Government policy: Some nations, like Canada and Singapore, have introduced foreign-buyer bans or taxes to cool demand, but the impact has been modest so far.
💡 What this means for you
For homeowners: Expect slower appreciation, but not necessarily falling values — unless you’re in an overheated city.
For renters: Relief could come as more rental units enter the market, though in-demand metros may remain pricey.
For investors: Cash flow is king again. High borrowing costs mean rental yields matter more than speculation.
For first-time buyers: Patience is key. If rates stabilize later in 2025, new affordability windows could open, especially in secondary cities.
🧭 The bigger picture
Housing isn’t just about buying and selling — it’s tied to nearly everything else in the economy. When homebuilding slows, so do jobs in construction, retail, and materials. When rents rise, consumer spending shrinks elsewhere. It’s a chain reaction that affects inflation, GDP growth, and even political stability.
As central banks look to ease rates in late 2025, the next phase may bring gradual relief — but the days of easy money and double-digit price growth are gone. The future housing market will likely be slower, steadier, and more regionalized.
The takeaway: The global housing squeeze isn’t ending — it’s evolving. It’s no longer a simple boom-or-bust story, but a reshuffling of where, how, and for whom homes are built and bought. For readers of The Economic Wagon, this shift is worth watching closely — because the next housing cycle will look very different from the last.
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That’s All For Today
I hope you enjoyed today’s issue of The Wealth Wagon. If you have any questions regarding today’s issue or future issues feel free to reply to this email and we will get back to you as soon as possible. Come back tomorrow for another great post. I hope to see you. 🤙
— Ryan Rincon, CEO and Founder at The Wealth Wagon Inc.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects the opinions of its editors and contributors. The content provided, including but not limited to real estate tips, stock market insights, business marketing strategies, and startup advice, is shared for general guidance and does not constitute financial, investment, real estate, legal, or business advice. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investment, real estate, and business decisions involve inherent risks, and readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence and consult with qualified professionals before taking any action. This newsletter does not establish a fiduciary, advisory, or professional relationship between the publishers and readers.